[트럼프 스톡커] 전란에도 美노동시장 ‘평온’, 월풀만 수익 붕괴

Labor Market Holds Steady Despite Middle East Conflict

The U.S. employment sector continues to demonstrate resilience even as geopolitical tensions persist in the Middle East. Recent data shows the job market maintaining stability, supported by robust infrastructure investments in artificial intelligence that have generated consistent hiring momentum.

Private Sector Hiring Exceeds Forecasts

Employment information firm ADP reported that private companies added 109,000 positions last month, surpassing analyst predictions of 84,000. This marks the strongest growth rate since early last year. Healthcare and education sectors led gains with 61,000 new positions, while transportation and construction also showed increases of 25,000 and 10,000 respectively.

Wage growth measured 4.4% compared to the same period last year. Job openings totaled 6.87 million, slightly above expert estimates, indicating sustained employer demand. Hiring jumped significantly to 5.55 million, with the hiring rate climbing to 3.5%.

Unemployment Claims Drop to Historic Lows

Weekly jobless claims fell to 190,000, marking the lowest level in 57 years since 1969. This data point serves as a key indicator of corporate layoff trends and suggests companies are retaining workers despite economic uncertainties from tariffs and elevated interest rates.

Continuing claims also declined to 1.77 million, the smallest figure in approximately two years, reinforcing signals that the labor market is not experiencing sharp deterioration.

Inflation Pressures Create Policy Dilemma

While employment remains strong, consumer prices tell a different story. Personal consumption expenditure increased 3.5% year-over-year in March, accelerating from February’s 2.8% rise. Even core measures excluding energy and food climbed 3.2% annually and 0.3% monthly.

Gasoline prices reached $4.54 per gallon, the highest since June 2022, while diesel hit $5.67 per gallon. These energy cost spikes are contributing to broader inflationary concerns.

Central Bank Debates Rate Direction

The contrasting signals from employment and inflation are fueling debate among Federal Reserve officials. At the recent policy meeting, three voting members opposed language suggesting potential monetary easing, preferring to keep all options open. This represented the most dissent at a Fed meeting in 34 years.

Market-based probabilities now assign a 22% chance of rate increases by year-end, up from 16% previously, while the odds of cuts have fallen to less than 8%. One Minneapolis Fed official stated that suggesting rate reductions now feels “uncomfortable” and acknowledged the possibility of needing to move in the opposite direction if conditions worsen.

Consumer Sentiment Weakens, Hitting Appliance Makers

Despite employment strength, consumer confidence has deteriorated sharply. The University of Michigan sentiment index dropped to 49.8 last month, the lowest reading since 1978.

This psychological shift is impacting retailers and manufacturers. Whirlpool reported a first-quarter loss of 56 cents per share, badly missing profit expectations of 38 cents. The appliance company slashed its full-year earnings forecast from $6.00 to between $3.00 and $3.50 per share, citing recession-level business conditions as consumers pull back on big-ticket purchases. The company’s stock plunged nearly 12% following the announcement.

Key Employment Report Awaited

Attention now turns to the comprehensive April jobs report due shortly, which will provide crucial insights into whether hiring momentum continued through last month. March data had already surprised analysts by showing 178,000 new positions versus expectations of just 59,000, providing the Fed confidence to maintain its policy stance.

The divergence between robust labor data and weakening consumer sentiment presents monetary policymakers with a challenging decision matrix as they balance inflation risks against economic growth concerns.